Scott Brunton believes his chances of winning Saturday's $500,000 Group 2 Feehan Stakes (1600m) hinge on Melbourne's unruly weather gods.
Stepping out with three runs already under his belt this campaign, Brunton believes a wet track combined with his race fitness could be the edge to Shot Of Irish's chances.
"We've stepped out on a big limb," Tasmania-based Brunton admits.
"But when you've got a miler that is hard fit and proven to be able to carry weight, if the tide swings and we get all that rain and it's a bottomless pit at The Valley and the others are just kicking off?
"My theory on it was it all came down to the weather forecast and praying the rain comes.
"It's not every day you get to run in a Group 2 and the horse has earned his shot.
"He's just a mudlark, a real swimmer.
"If the rain comes, he's a serious chance."
Melbourne is predicted to receive up to 45mm of rainfall on Friday and Saturday.
A $30,000 yearling purchase who has won connections more than 10 times his purchase price, Shot Of Irish's trainer confesses it's a throw at the stumps.
"Yes, he would have been very hard to beat in the mile open handicap," Brunton concedes.
"But he's been racing against lower grade and those horses are at the top of their game at the moment.
"I do understand he is not as good as 90 per cent of the horses in the field but he's tough.
"A couple of years ago Magic Consul won it, it just looks like a quality year as it did that year and all those horses were just kicking off too.
"I knew the race was there and it was in the back of my mind.
"I wanted to throw in a nom and when I looked at them on Monday, I pretty well made up my mind there and then.
"I know we've got Sovereign Award and Streets Of Avalon from a better draw, but I still sit second or third and I can't see how they will be going slowly."
Brunton has also backed in apprentice rider Tahlia Hope, who has ridden the seven-year-old in all three runs this campaign, even though Saturday's race does not allow a claim for apprentices.
"The girl is doing a fantastic job," Brunton said of the 22-year-old.
"Last year we had the horses over there and she was riding them in work every day.
"She has a good rapport with him.
"I think she's a good kid and sometimes better the devil you know than the devil you don't.
"I want her to have confidence and I need to show I have confidence in her."
The Feehan Stakes is renowned as the only golden ticket into the Cox Plate and while Shot Of Irish was not originally nominated for Australia's weight-for-age championship, Brunton has a more left-field idea than forking out the MVRC's $200,000 late-entry fee.
"Do you know what I reckon I'd do if he won it, I'd put him on the market and someone can buy my share and I reckon it would make him worth double," he said with a laugh.
"But no, if the chance arose well possibly, but I don't want to do the race injustice either.
"His 2000-metre record is only fair.
"I'm excited to have a runner, it's a great race.
"The main race I am aiming up for this year is the Cranbourne Cup back to a mile."
Paul Preusker and connections decided against paying the late entry fee when Magic Consol won the race in 2018.
Humidor won the Feehan Stakes in 2020 before going onto finish 12th in the Cox Plate. While nine horses have completed the double in the same year, the most recent occasion was in 2007 when completed by El Segundo.
While Brunton says he will be watching Saturday's race from Casino in Tasmania due to COVID constraints, he is hoping the gelding runs the race of his life for one of his connections in particular.
"One of his owners is very unwell in hospital Wayne, so I really hope it gives him a kick along, who is a very close friend," Brunton said.
"This horse is one of those rare ones who has got better every year.
"He was behind horses like Mandela Effect as a three and four-year-old but I believe he's better than those horses now."
Sportsbet has marked Shot Of Irish a $10 chance in the Feehan Stakes.
Brunton said Hela, who won seven of her first eight races, is also bound for the mainland this week, after she last raced when suffering her only defeat in the Australasian Oaks in May.
The daughter of Night Of Thunder will resume at Caulfield on September 18.