Spanish Reef (Image: Racing Photos)
It may only be the first week of September, but Ken Keys thinks his team's spring success rests on what happens at Saturday's Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes meeting at The Valley.
The Cranbourne trainer takes four runners to The Valley and says he expects to have a much clearer idea on how his spring will unfold come Saturday night.
"We'll know a lot more after they all run, to be honest it's on the line for us whether we'll have a spring or not," Keys said.
"It's such an interesting time, I really do love this top-end time of racing and it would be great to be a part of it."
Stakes winner Spanish Reef leads Keys' charges on Saturday, racing in the Group 2 Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes ahead of big targets in the spring with Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate nominations.
The daughter of Lope de Vega resumes from a winter spell following her disappointing 14th in the Group 1 Queen of The Turf at Randwick in the autumn, when she had been chasing a fourth-straight victory.
"It really was her only bad run of the prep after those victories in the lead-up, it was just too late in her campaign," Keys said.
"She was coming off her best run winning the Sunline Stakes in nice order."
It's that Group 2 victory in the Sunline that gives Keys confidence the now five-year-old can put in a good showing over the same track and distance this Saturday, even having to come up against the boys this time around.
Dwayne Dunn has been booked to ride her for the first time when she steps out over the mile.
Keys, who is still chasing an elusive Group 1 victory, says Spanish Reef will next target the JRA Cup (2040m) before the Caulfield Cup (2400m).
"I'm very comfortable that she'll get out to 2000 metres and more," he said.
"Obviously I'm going in with a lot of hope, but it's just great to have a genuine open-age group competitor in the stable."
The Stakes-winning mare is Keys' best horse since former star three-year-old Rich Enuff, and Keys will also field the G1 Caulfield Guineas second-placegetter's full sister at The Valley.
Write Enuff hasn't yet shown the same form as her star brother but is still one win from just two career starts, with the lightly-raced filly again getting her chance in Saturday's Atlantic Jewel Stakes.
"We'll find out where we're at with her, she's showed promise and a Guineas path is the right distance but we'll just wait and see," Keys said.
The Cranbourne trainer is also buoyant about the chances of Fighting Sun three-year-old, Green Ivy, who steps out to 1500m for the first time on Saturday.
"He was super in the autumn and is definitely looking for some more ground," he said.
"It's a chance to get in the back door to the Stutt Stakes in two weeks and maybe a Guineas."
Last-start Flemington winner Al Passem also lines up for the stable in the Listed Chandler Macleod Stakes after a seven-week freshen-up.