Cox Plate history says Yes

Being the region's weight-for-age championship, the Cox Plate is a hard race to win.

That being the case, you'd think it would be even harder to win a second time.

Recent history, however, seems to suggest the first time is the toughest.

If the winner makes it back to the starting stalls the following year, that horse usually wins again.

Since 2000, there have been five occasions when a first-time Cox Plate winner has returned to defend his/her title the following year. Four of those five defending champs won again. The other, Fields Of Omagh in 2004, ran second to the three-year-old Savabeel.

Of the four defending champions who won, three increased their winning margins.

Sunline increased her margin from one-and-a-half lengths in 1999 to a record-equalling seven lengths in 2000.

Northerly, whose winning margins were rarely huge, won by three-quarters of a length in 2001 and a length a year later.

So You Think won by two-and-a-half lengths in 2009, a margin that was halved but still convincing the following year.

Winx won by four-and-three-quarter lengths in 2015 and a ridiculous eight lengths last year. She is $2.80 in the novelty markets to match or increase that margin on Saturday.

Mind you, history says the degree of difficulty increases when a Cox Plate hat-trick is in the offing.

Of 10 back-to-back winners, only Kingston Town has achieved the three-peat.

The good news for Winx is that by returning to The Valley for another crack she's already got one up on six of those 10 back-to-back winners.

Moreover, of the three that attempted the hat-trick and got beaten (Young Idea in 1938, Beau Vite in 1954 and Sunline in 2001), it's worth noting that none started favourite and all got knocked off by superstars at the peak of their powers (Ajax, Rising Fast and Northerly respectively).

The only back-to-back Cox Plate winner to run as favourite the following year was Kingston Town, who started at 7-4 ($2.75).

At one point in the run he couldn't win, but he did.

Winx will be much shorter than $2.75 on Saturday, and the record shows that of 21 horses to have started odds-on in the Cox Plate, 15 have won.

I like those odds.